Re: Cable (MSO) Players Today
Thread,
Here's an interesting article that is a good summary of the current state of the MSO market. Lot's of name dropping so I thought I would post for reference.
Ironically, the spending by the MSOs are good for last mile investors, but obviously bad (short term) for bottom line of the MSOs.
MikeM(From Florida)
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Cable Operators Seen In Line with Q2 Views
Analyst says ramp-ups will slow down growth
Jul 6, 1999 SAN FRANCISCO - Cable operators should generally be in line with most analysts' estimates in the second quarter, an analyst said. "I expect very few surprises," said Ted Henderson, an analyst at Janco Partners.
The rollout and deployment of new video telephony and high-speed data services "is going to move along a little bit slower than what people are expecting," Henderson said. But the number of subscribers to digital, enhanced analog and pay-per-view services should continue to increase quickly, as operators prepare for video-on-demand services, which "are just around the corner," he added.
Industry-wide, the cost of launch of new services will probably slow cash flow growth to "low single-digit" percentages, said Henderson. But the companies have guided analysts to appropriate adjustments in their forecasts, he added.
Pure-play cable operators include:
Comcast (CMCSK)
Cablevision (CVC)
Cox Communications (COX
MediaOne (UMG)
Century Communications (CTYA)
TCA Cable (TCAT)
Adelphia Communications (ADLAC)
Jones Intercable (JOINA)
Liberty Media (LMG.A) is a pure-play provider of programming content for cable.
The industry is consolidating rapidly. AT&T has agreed to buy MediaOne, after having just acquired TCI last year. Cox is set to buy TCA Cable. Century is in a pact to acquire Adelphia. Comcast owns a majority of Jones Intercable, and may one day opt to buy the shares it doesn't already own.
And this activity doesn't even include Paul Allen's privately held Charter Communications, which has been gobbling up medium-sized operators by the handful.
Cash flow is a key yardstick for cable stocks, as frequent swaps and acquisitions tend to skew the bottom line. But no consensus forecasts were available from First Call. Earnings estimates from analysts who responded to First Call's survey are below.
COMPANY JuneQ 1999 Est
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Comcast -1 cent
Cablevision -$1.19
Cox -5 cents
MediaOne -37 cents
Century -31 cents
Adelphia -$1.43
Jones Intercable -50 cents
Liberty Media no consensus |
