Negatives ... First the Bad News -
1. Africa - Big country risk here, everybody knows Africa is a horror show, the best you can hope for is sporadic intermissions. The least advanced of the continents, banditry and warlordism is endemic. The last white-led government of Africa, the Afrikaaners, have fallen ... while ANC moderates with their huge international support may sustain some degree of order for the near term, who knows what is coming down the pipe. Life has no guarantees anywhere, but in Africa it may have a Best Before sticker on it.
2. Muchísimo paper out - 178.5mil out, 285.2mil fd ... that's a whole bunch, well past rollback point for many juniors or smallcap producers.
3. The Friedland connection - Robert Friedland, a focus of considerable less-than-laudatory attention in the press, remains, to my knowledge, a minority shareholder.
4. The Branch/Hansard/Buckingham/Grunberg connection - lots of negative articles out there, put any combination of those names into altavista.com, dogpile.com, google.com, and you'll pull up reams by Politically Correct Pundits who see the security efforts as some sort of Return of the Tsars private army effort to establish a pillaging empire by brute force.
5. The chart - Hey, if the trend is your friend, this one needs pallbearers.
6. Diamonds are really small things, and some people wonder whether other people put some in their pockets instead of putting them all in the company sack so they can wend their merry way to the bottom line on the annual report. We just don't trust each other any more - try cashing a cheque at a 7-11 and you'll see what i mean.
7. The JCI/Ekuseni thing - Where's the evidence to indicate that once the JCI people have control ... assuming that they're after control, which it looks like to me ... that they will from the goodness of their hearts reward minority shareholders of dmw for their patience through these troubled times? The last RSA/Canuck diamond doings were DeBeers doing it to Southernera, and the SUFferers still have trouble passing solids, or five bucks for that matter.
8. The First Mary wall - Now it may not be there any more, i don't know, but up until last Friday there was size sitting on or just above the ask having the effect of serious weight on the price, but lacking the appearance, to me, of really really wanting to be sold. If the purpose of this was to prepare the price for a financing or debt conversion, the dilution at these levels will add to Negative No. 2, not that it, hah!, makes a great deal of difference at this point, given paper out already.
9. The deadness of this thread. People will PM me on it but there's a grand total of three of us posting - Why is that? ... It's nowhere near the number that ipmcf or bxm or kry enjoyed in their respective heydays.
Now don't get me wrong, i'm long the stock ... good stuff later ... cheers
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