American Online Banter - VUPDA
Subj: You're Busted or Con Not
Date: 97-03-21 19:48:36 EST
From: ThomasK784
SDOFOUR,
You say....
<<Will the last speculator..sucker..left holding the BAG please let out an internet primal scream when this beauty goes to a new low..ie BELOW $3 1/2...>>
What will drive the price so low when we have eps growth exceeding 35% a year?
<<did you all forget to notice there are now 20,000,000 !!! shares and NOTHING stopping Potter and Co. from continuing to use more shares as currency (rotten as it is) to acquire more stores (authorized but not yet issued at the last annual meeting) Can you spell DILUTION...>>
Where is the dilution if revenue and eps are growing. The deals appear to be ACCRETIVE. Can you spell that Mr. Rogers? Mr. Potter has stated that future deals will be cash and stock combinations. Therefore boosting eps without dilution.
<<a friend of mine recently put his store (not unlike a vupda unit) on the market and was offered $4.00 per title...he has about10,000 titles...these units have little appeal or cache anymore as the greater FOOL theory has evaporated with saturation>>
What company offered him $4.00 per title? Did he sell? What was his gross and net? Details, we want details! No wild claims allowed.
<<and only a real idiot would pay $300,000+ to $500,000 for something you can start across the street for $30,000-$50,000>>
Wait a second. You said your friend has 10,000 titles and was offered $4.00 per title? The offer was $40,000. This is the average of your high and low price. In fact, it looks like a steal to me. Not only does the purchaser get a thriving business the start up is immediate. This reduces the normal start up period of starting a new location and building a loyal client base.
<<sooo much for the old valuation rule of thumb as a sales price of one times sales or three times net..this has serious implications for vupda's valuation $4 1/2 x 20,000,000 shares = approx. $90,000,000 divided by 300+ untis= approx. $300,000 capitalization per UNIT!?@#*YIKES!>>
Whoever said that VUPDA was for sale? Capitalization per unit is not a valuation of a stock price. Colgate palmolive has no real book value or assets and it trades for $100 share with 153,100,000 shares outstanding. Oh my gosh - Colgate is overvalued! Better short it. Stock price valuation is based on revenues, earnings and growth. Have you analyzed any of VUPDA's deals? They have been ACCRETIVE. Their new loan facility is to be used for acquisitions. Less shares will be issued. I say brovo Mr. Potter. By the way, he owns a lot of shares. I'd say he has a vested interest to build shareholder value.
<<meanwhile moov and movi are making new lows kids and nobody including viacom is going to pay 30-40 x earnings for these dogs with>>
Again, I did not know that VUPDA was for sale. I believe that AOL indicates a 27 P/E for VUPDA. Another resource, Yahoo, shows 26.74 P/E. Wait one more quarter and we could see a P/E of 20 or less. Again valuation is based on past as well as future performance and earnings expectations. Acquisitions are based on forward earnings potential as well as trailing earnings. Which I must state have been growing 33% or more.
<<(west coast has been closing units..could'nt sellem to anybody..ever hear of a tawhomer?)>>
West Coast Video's business plan was and is still flawed. They went head to head with Hollywood and Blockbuster.
<<..i'm short hlyw from 28 5/8 and my target is 18 or lower..>>
Hey with a P/E of 40 that may not be a bad move. Could your target of $18 be the real value of VUPDA?
<<and to Tom who says C YA @10..well i'm short from $11 on vupda>>
Bully for you. That was brilliant and a good strategy back in July/August 1995. Time to cover! Isn't that a long tome to be short a stock?
<<and i quess i won't cya @ $3 where this turkey is headed>>
Of course I wont C YA @ $3. You'll cover when we punch above $6.00. You'll hold and I will C Ya @ $10
<<...don't forget Bill G. and Craig M. are right on your heels with Teledisic (can you hear the very large footsteps?..not to mention Iridium, the 'cable guy' and now the telcos...)>>
I suggest that you take a walk down to your local video store and watch the people rent 2-3 films each visit. Ask them about cable and pay per view. Technology takes time to distribute and gain acceptance. Video viewers prefer to view the tape when they want and tape their own private copy. Your gloom and doom prediction is premature by at least 10 years. I believe that analysts were predicting the same demise of checks with the advent of a cashless society. The fact is that check writing has increased dramatically.
<< Maybe Potter can turn-over some of his leases to Starbucks.>>
Great idea to have a Starbucks location within or adjacent to each Video Update store. Have ya e-mailed that suggestion to Mr. Potter?
<<Sorry to throw so much water on your grand parade..but i posted this scam early last fall as you will recall..>>
I was not around then but will look at the old posts if available. The real scam was Potter's inexperience and following Piper's direction regarding the secondary. That is history. Get over it. You made your money by shorting the stock.
<<incidently if you really think Piper retail has an interest and that they think their own guy is on to anything with an $8-12 1-2 yr target..just callem up and have them punch up the firm wide long holding...i'm short more then the entire firms long!>>
I am not familiar with Wide Long Holding and do not see the correlation. Of course an investor has to take any recommendation with a grain of salt. It is each person's responsibility to perform their own do-diligence.
<<obviously almost nobody cares about the eps,cf,bv and growth rate at least not any thinking INVESTORS.>>
I do care. In fact the eps is great and growing, cash flow is positive, and book value is a hair below $4.00. I have read "Red Chip" review who is an independent authority on small cap stocks. They rate the company a "B". Their target is $8.00.
<<have you checked out the per unit evaluation of Planet Hollywood (phii) and Rain Forest Cafe (rain)...i did!>>
Good for you! What does this have to do with VUPDA?
<<when they were trading in the low $30s..i had 50 phii puts @$2 from $34 and closed out at $11 when the stock hit $18...>>
Congratulations, your stock trading leaves me in awe.
<< fundamentally these are simply OVER PRICED crummy glitzie hamburger joints that none of the stars go to another nice con!..or maybe more accurately described as a very expensive hamburger investment 'chain'..there exist only so many people who will go and when the party is over sly is OUT the side door with his bag of money and arnold 'won't be back' he's on the golf course!..>>
You may be right about these two companies. Of course they were overvalued and ripe for a fall. Story stocks often end up that way. The food biz is very competitive. Just look at McDonalds, Burger King and Wendys. Of course if you had invested $1,000 in McDonalds when it built its first burger flipping golden arches establishment and held the stock you would be rich.
<<well, good luck.>>
Yes, and good luck to you too.
C Ya @ $10
Tom |
