Hi Everyone,
This morning our website is unavailable to me, so heres the INDEX UPDATE:
JULY 8,1999 - 8:30am
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SHORT-TERM TECHNICAL READINGS(1-5 DAYS):
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DOW - OVERBOUGHT RANGE
SPX - OVERBOUGHT RANGE
OEX - OVERBOUGHT RANGE
NAZ - UPPER MIDRANGE, NEAR OVERBOUGHT
NDX - UPPER MIDRANGE, NEAR OVERBOUGHT
DOT - UPPER MIDRANGE
SOX - UPPER MIDRANGE
RUT - UPPER MIDRANGE
DRG - OVERBOUGHT
BKX - OVERBOUGHT
TRAN - UPPER MIDRANGE
TYX - MIDRANGE
VIX - LOWER MIDRANGE NEAR OVERSOLD
WED was relatively flat, so for the time being the 3-DAY pattern is still
on schedule; therefore it would be common was a significant down day similar
to DAY 1.
For this specific short-term downswing, my downside limits on the OEX is in
the 705-695 range. Thereafter another bounce, but here's where I may be
changing my position slightly. I am not as confident as I was previously
that the market will set much higher highs unless INTEREST RATES pull out
of their uptrend. We need to keep in mind that the major indicies have
already set new highs. Not to say that the DOW cannot squeak out some more
new highs, but I am less confident that the DOW will hit 12,000-13,000 range
this summer as so many are expecting. Im more inclined that the DOW is near
its highs, and could set slightly higher highs by a few hundred points while
sector rotation reappears with more strength in the NAZ.
As for the DOW, the TRANSPORTs is not yet confirming the new highs in the
DOW, so if there is still strength in the market, I feel it will be
elsewhere like the NAZ.
Again, I feel the key is still INTEREST RATEs. I realise that we are
approaching announcements season and most are expecting good numbers, but
I feel that if the RATEs do not pull down some, and there is no strong
evidence of that yet, it will minimize the upside and the effects of good
earning numbers.
I am still expecting a bounce after this immediate short-term downswing, but
I am also suspecting that the next short-term cycle may increase in
negativity. That downswing may occur during the week after option
expiration which is statistically a relatively negative/weak week.
seeya
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