Teflon - the interesting thing about MSFT to note here, is the question of volume. It is damn low. Institutional money is side-line for whatever reason. Once they step in, you should see volume pick up. Perhaps they are attempting to get in lower, but the market is not cooperating - and so at some point they may throw in the towel and start buying. Or, if they still succeed in driving the market lower somewhere between now and options expiration, they may come in then. Whatever - one way or another, MSFT is heading higher, even if there has to be a pull-back before then.
<OT> Teflon - re: internet stocks... don't you think that all that's happening, is that people are getting more sophisticated about investing/trading nets? It used to be any .com would climb to the sky, when the sector was hot. Those days are over. It used to be any .com IPO would explode. No more. I think two things are happening: *slowly*, folks are beginning to distinguish between pure hype, and good issues (I know, I know, the blind lemming herd instict still rules). And more importantly, people realize that net stocks can decline very badly (the AOL scare to below 100 was a big wakeup call). So, people are more likely to take profits after a run up. This caps the upward explosions. Of course, that can be a dangerous trend, because it forces you to take profits earlier and earlier ahead of the crowd - then the crowd catches on, and takes it earlier too. Soon, the moves upward are quickly corrected by profit taking. The danger point is should buying power (that initiates the runs) dry up - at that point, since runs have ended, you could see an mass exit from the sector, and that would not be pretty. I don't think we are at that stage yet. The stage we are at is: the easy money days are over. Now folks are paying a lot more attention to patterns (like with YHOO), and are a lot more savvy. Remember, the nets started out, and still are largely in control of traders, not the conventional long term buy and holders. This means, as Joe-Six-Pack gets more savvy about trading, it will be harder and harder to make money. Conclusion: the internet market dynamics have changed, that's all. No doom on the horizon as yet, just a little bit more work for the money, than used to be required. And endless gushers, are coming to an end.
Morgan |
