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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here
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To: JMD who wrote (4533)7/8/1999 9:43:00 PM
From: ftth  Read Replies (3) of 12823
 
Hi Mike, when you see things like "fastest growing" always be skeptical. Statistics can be twisted in every imaginable way to show just about anything you want them to. If they conveniently leave out a few clarifiers, they aren't even lying.

So the questions to be asked are: Are the figures handset sales revenues? or unit growth? and over what period? and single band or multi band? Single mode or multi mode? and US figures only or rest of world only(which is the largest piece by far and not heavily CDMA currently) or world wide? Or maybe they're semiconductor revenues with all the same variants? Is it partitioned out only to 800-900 MHz or 1800-1900 or both?

These sorts of questions are important if you want to translate some growth number into the beneficial companies.

PS the highest 5-year compound growth rate in a breakdown by functional partition is in--believe it or not--memory (Flash, SRAM, EEPROM). This is true for CDMA, TDMA, and GSM. And it's by a whopping margin. See what statistics can do? The transition to stacked chip scale packages for memory is the largest growth opportunity when compared to all functional subsystems on any air interface you look at. This is why I asked for specifics in my reply to Sam's query.
Figures for every permutation and combination of the above variations are available; a few conveniently left out specifics in a quoted growth number and the quoter of the number has dozens of rows and columns of numbers to choose from.

as for: <<it is now a foregone conclusion that TDMA/GSM is a legacy standard on its way out.>.

That might be the word with your QCOM hat on, but if you put on your neutral observer hat, you'll see that CDMA revenues pale in comparison to GSM any year during the forecast period; in fact total semiconductor revenue for CDMA in 2003 will only be about 80% of the 1998 GSM revenues, AND are less than half the GSM revs every year over that 5 year period. TDMA is a different story.

dh
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