Ray, i don't want to speak for TA experts, but my impression is that the general bias is that price and volume conveys all information, including FA and sentiment.
I am a neophyte, but my feeling is that statistically this is true, although in specific cases patterns identified with TA may not apply to individual issues
This may not be important in a highly liquid issue as TA should be able to get you in or out, assuming you have excellent execution, at least theoretically
One important thing for me, in retrospect is 'attention span', the longer people hold winners/losers, the more stress occurs
Also, the longer folks sit on the sidelines while 'huge' winners seem to go buy, the more stress occurs, causing them to 'need' to trade
Back to MCOM, as a 'live' example, huge gains...and while I did apparently identify resistance at $50, it was not with TA, but by 'polling' people, shorts and longs
Trader Allen seemed to confirm $50, but what happens next?
My 'bet' is lower after another 20% increase
On the other hand it could gap down tomorrow to sub $40, long stops could be triggered and who knows how far it might drop
I think possibly $14 and $8 seems safe
$60 is a possibility too
But can TA alone predict this?
Either way, if the markets tank, my suspicion is that within 60 days the longs will forget why they bought since the implementation cycle of the infrastructure and sales cylce is so long
Lastshadow uses neural nets where time lag can be incorporated into price predictions, does anyone use similar measures in their analysis?
While this might not matter to pure TA folks, it is crucial to me as a swing trade is my preferential trading style
The information received on this thread is very useful, and I hope that my looking for tools in order to hold for more that one day will not alienate the rest of the participants.
ynot ;) |
