Elaine Garzarelli Message Board

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Non-Tech : Elaine Garzarelli

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To: EepOpp who wrote (276)	3/22/1997 9:08:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	of 292

Will: There are two points you should consider, China is building its own technological infrastructure, so some of their demand for technology will be internally satisfied. The second point is that I am in agreement that long term the democratization of the world means converting it to a consumer society, thus a long period of prosperity. The problem with such period of changes is that they cause dislocations and rapid changes to which many large companies cannot adapt very well. The macroeconomics seems promising as far as demand, so promising that the demand may exceed supply and thus create inflationary periods. These inflationary periods will cause interest rates to go up and fixed income instrument to pause serious competition for equities. The results may be a period like 1962 to 1982 where the market traded in a broad range of 500 to 1000 on the Dow ( the latter was reached first in 1966) for 20 years. Now we may be entering another such period, and I wish I knew the range, but my gut feelings tells me something like 5000 to 10000 on the Dow, but who knows. I personally feels that the range will be strange like 6200 to 12500 on the Dow, but until we test 6200 I do not dare guessing. Zeev

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