Dee Jay,
...you're all caught up in the notion that ISP's won't buy the ROK-based modem cards because there's no standard yet, but they will buy X2s.
Isn't that really where it's at? Our point is that ROK-based ISPs have to buy and install new hub modem cards containing an unproven, undemonstrated 56k implementation, with relatively few client modems in the public's hands, whereas 100% of existing USR hub modem cards are software upgradeable, at no or very low relative cost, with millions of x2 capable modems already hanging off of users' serial ports.
The ROK consortium's initial token deployment may not be months behind, but in terms of material, i.e. widespread deployment, they are indeed several months behind.
...don't simply dump on me for being a contrarian to your beliefs
There is nothing wrong with a contrarian view that has some basis in reality. However, I think you are having a major case of denial if you think the consortium is going to call the shots in 56k. Dell, Packard Bell, Gateway, Acer, and NEC are all supporting x2. The major PC OEMs not (yet) fully in the x2 camp are Compaq and HP.
Consider this: the PC OEMs backing x2 dominate the consumer channels, while the others (56kflex PC OEMs) are weighted towards the corporate desktop. The consumer channel is where the overiding demand for x2 exists, since those are dialup access users, whereas the corporate desktop is connected to the network via NICs, where 56k isn't even an issue. That's a huge difference in channels for deployment of 56k
This is purely speculation on my part, but I think Ascend based ISPs tend to cater more towards high bandwidth corporate website customers who utilize ISDN to the ISP for their gateway, due to it's high reliability and full duplex character. That's why more Maxen hubs are already digitaly connected to their CO. 56k isn't going to displace those ISDN ports in most cases. However, the USR based ISPs serve over 15 million dialup users, most of whom will be demanding 56k service, which can be easily provided by the ISPs via software upgrade. Again, a huge difference in channel for deploying 56k
The fact that archrivals Rockwell, Lucent and Motorola if gotten into bed with each other is a sign of weakness, not strength. They can put all the spin on it that they want, but it won't change the underlying conditions that clearly make x2 the dominant 56k solution at this point in time.
You keep right on taking the contrarian view, since it helps all parties to do an occasional reality check, and avoid the trap of tunnel vision.
As an aside, one thing we do agree on is that RA is a youngster, and that the next, best, technology is just around the corner. 56k is just a transition from analog to digital connections for the remote access user. There's a great big pie of business that will be served up for years to come, enough pie for many networking companies to prosper from.
Regards,
David |
