Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy?

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To: Amsterdam who wrote (2931)	7/9/1999 10:18:00 AM
From: Shege Dambanza	Read Replies (2) of 6974

$2.6B, $9B, $11B. Does anyone really take these projections seriously? Projecting out any more than a couple of quarters (or about 2 times the sales cycle) is meaningless. I realize investment banks like to build models with EPS projections for the next 10-12 quarters, but they always end up revising all their estimates any way. Research firms are hopeless--they never go back and say: gee, in 1996 we projected Y2K spending in 1999Q2 would be $70 Gazillion, and it actually turned out to be $1 Gazillion, so we were waaaaay off. What they say is: if we redefine what we said in 1996 and include all spending on all software (because all new software is arguably Y2K compliant), then we were right all along. Your prediction about the projections being low will probably be true: who knows how the market will be defined then.

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