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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy?
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To: Shege Dambanza who wrote (2932)7/9/1999 10:40:00 AM
From: Trader Dave  Read Replies (2) of 6974
 
I love how AMR projects the growth of erp to be massive in 2000 and beyond by defining as to include front office. (note amr stood for american manufacturing research or something like that.)

Market researchers are generally thoughtless lemmings that do projections based on two things: trendline and surveys. I can't imagine a thought process more inherently flawed.

I remember in 1993 the folks at several nationally prominent research shops were predicting the decline in growth of the market for internetworking gear since most of the existing applications that needed internetworking infrastructure had enough bandwidth. Hmm, did anyone consider new applications?

It is this kind of thinking both in the research community and the investment community that provides opportunities for those involved in the trenches.

Agree with Amsterdam, they are underestimating the size of the front office market. IMO, it's critical to organizations that need to build an externally facing e-commerce solution. Anyone can put up a website that provides electronic brochures. Managing the entire customer life cycle via an external system is another story.

We're going to hear about warts and deployment complexity and customer complaints all the way up. SAP deployments caused the same complaints and that was just for redoing internal business process. This involves changing the entire business model.

Despite our worries and occasional concern, SEBL is a key play on the front office category. Clarify's eFrontOffice vision may put it in the same category as well. I do not see Oracle in that light at all.

TD
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