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Technology Stocks : Citrix Systems (CTXS)

CTXS 103.90

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Nov 2 5:00 PM EST

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To: mauser96 who wrote (6754)	7/9/1999 12:07:00 PM
From: Marconi	Read Replies (1) of 9068

Hello Mr. Lamar: [somewhat OT--but a favorite old friend of mine] Actually technology is forecastable. Technology forecasts are part of effective technology management. And with a world scope of competitive positions, strategic technology management is a possibility. Americans are relatively green at that but have learned in the last decade to become more sensitive to the issue as the old wild west approach from the 50's and 60's, when the United States was a relatively large island of technology, is obviously not adequate. CTXS CEO talks generally as if he has some awareness like this, as all effective technology based firm's execs should. It would be nice to know if CTXS actually has a formal team doing technology forecasts and strategic technology planning. It only takes a handful of good people to coordinate that effectively. Forecasts are main fodder for general management, with the illumination of rates of change in technology, sensitization to emerging technologies and their potential impacts, the caution that seismic technologies do arise every decade and their source unpredictable (hence the need for a technology monitoring effort), and rates and extent of technology substitution being elegantly forecastable are extremely useful for knowing when to sell out one technology while adapting to the up and coming ones (and hoping one can adapt their company effectively). CTXS's business would lend itself to effective technology management practices like this. Does anyone know of folks in the firm doing this formally? It takes dedicated staff to be effective at it. Winging it looks like it is working, but it is really reaction and hunch compared to the quantitative professional discipline of technology forecasting, or the overall discipline of technology management. All technology firm execs should do it if they want to be leaders in their industry and many think they are--they really need staff to do it effectively because they are occupied with too many other matters and distractions to be able to do it professionally. The major element of apparent chaos remaining in effective technology management programs is the unpredictability of discoveries. They happen with regularity. They also are published and are subject to awareness through technology monitoring--the formal process of looking for signs of changes in technology. Best regards, m

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