Hello Mr. Wexler:
For timers and traders, small potatoes, not major funds, the econometric model indicated switching to money funds by the close Thursday, July 8 (with a switch to equities indicated by the close Monday, June 28). Beyond the very short term effect of econometric predictions, I am wondering what the dollar is going to do? Japan is saber rattling with the yen, the dollar is near highs, US rates are up a little, but something is going to have to happen in the currency markets this summer, and my gut instinct is I don't know but it could be messy. If the mess were to trigger a sense of poorness--reversal of the wealth effect--some balloons might pop. That will scare some folks. I don't want to be in the way of the mob of dummies who have too many dollars sloshing around. They have proven dangerous and crazy in recent years. Still I don't see how that much money can disappear overnight, so there may be some greater volatility stimulated in the equities markets if the currencies go out of hand first.
Best regards,
m |
