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Technology Stocks : Citrix Systems (CTXS)

CTXS 103.90

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Nov 2 5:00 PM EST

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To: Marconi who wrote (6755)	7/9/1999 1:23:00 PM
From: mauser96	Read Replies (1) of 9068

OTOTOT..Forecasts no matter how well organized, are still unreliable. .That doesn't mean that it shouldn't be attempted,(since it beats doing nothing) or that it can't be done by some sort of technology management team as you suggest. The news is full of this kind of report, some companies make a good consulting living doing nothing else, and I assume most big companies do it in-house also. That being said, this kind of forecasting almost always misses the most important changes of all, disruptive technology. Furthermore the more one depends on "quantitative professional discipline of technology forecasting", the more likely trained people using the same tools will make the same mistake. You and I are really talking about 2 different things - for the every day management of a company the way you suggest is probably the best solution. However as an investor I'm after the disruptive changes, the situations where the chaotic "butterfly" effect may be at work, where I can make big money. For this I would rather have one genius with insight than a thousand "quantitive professionals". Just my 2 cents worth..

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