<< your take on Greenspan puzzles me, as everyone else on this
thread has been exposed to the same public information regarding what he
does and says, how is it that you can post such strong and unambiguous
interpertations of these events and no others see what you see ?>>
Hello Doug, this thread is just a very small corner of the investment world
and there probably is similar interpretations to mine out there. My post
is just my opinion and I don't really care if it is not a popular one. It is how
I see it and a negative view is never popular. Wall street and the main stream press that reports on them would never tout that the FED wants to reign in the markets, they make their money selling stock.
<<That which you put forth shows Greenspan's cause for his current decisions,
and that which fuels his next possible reactions for the events that the
USA and other economies may take.
My next question to you is to ask if your study of Greenspan includes the
beliefs of this person, or do you just see a person reacting to events,
and applying needed medicine or needed change of policy ?>>
Yes, I have read a lot about Greenspan and his believes through the years, but
I put more weight on what he says and does now. Basically I believe he is saying traditional measurements of economic activity have changed or perhaps in other words, different factors have stronger effects than they once did. Perhaps some of Mr. Greenspan's believes have changed.
<<My final question is to ask you if you expected these changes in Greenspan,
as in for certain changes in the economy he will do as such, or are you just
reporting events as you currently see them, without the "why" behind them ? >>
I would say I did not expect these changes, but am not really surprised. He has referenced many times in the past couple years about over valued markets and the damage or fallout that could occur if perceptions or events change.
Not sure what you mean by the 'why', but I would answer that a market that becomes way over valued, poses a danger because the main stream believe is that the market can only have a short term correction, so nobody is prepared or invested properly for high risk or a prolonged downturn. In other words there is too much leverage and debt that could compound the problem of a prolonged down turn in equities.
A recent survey in California showed 15% of home purchase were using money from stock market gains. The survey is not done on a consistent basis but the
next highest result was 4%, I think this was sometime in the 1980s.
Key technical employess are quitting their jobs if their company does not go public. They want stock options as part of their salary to be competitive with
their friends an peers.
These are just a couple signs of a major market peak. I think Greenspan is seeing many of these sign of the times as well
Ron |
