How high will Microsoft fly? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?

MSFT 503.37

-1.6%

Nov 13 3:59 PM EST

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To: RTev who wrote (25803)	7/9/1999 7:37:00 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) of 74651

If a semi-closed gatekeeper system like AOL gains dominance on cable, then those advantages for Microsoft disappear since the gatekeeper controls the software needed to access the net. I bet if AOL was not dominant as it is, MSFT would probably favor a very fragmented ISP industry in all types of internet access (regular and high speed). That would really be its opportunity to create an internet "Windows". Right now, AOL is its real threat. If @Home and Roadrunner gain more momentum and AOL's growth slows down dramatically(Gateway, Dell and other PC companies should get this going), MSN would be poised to make big gains in "hits". People will go to the best portals. MSN has a huge amount of money available to make it the best site. This can also be accomplished by getting @Home and Roadrunner to become the prefered choice for high speed access. As you stated MSFT has an ownership interest in them anyways. The bottom line to me is to make sure no other player gets to the 800 pound gorilla status. I would just call it a "divide and conquer" strategy. By this i mean make the ISPs fight fiercely so that no one service becomes the prefered brand (as AOL is now) in the future. BTW--I wonder what Yahoo is lobbying for. If i was a betting man (actually i am <g>), i would think they would prefer as fragmented an industry as they can get. Maybe they want @home and roadrunner to get bigger and bigger and then be forced to open up the lines at a much later date when AOL would have been weakened. Of course the premise is that regular phone access will become less popular for internet surfers. This would occur if the big cable guys do some big time cheap internet service promotions that one could not resist.

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