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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 659.00

+1.0%

Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (19798)	7/10/1999 4:08:00 AM
From: Berney	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Haim, I know you are not excited about this market. However, you really should go back and look at the weekly and monthly OEX trading channel since 1994. It really is a pretty picture! There is an FA reason for this. I show the weekly lower channel line about 18% below where we are now. History says we will hit it at least once this year. It is not a negative; only the natural order of things. History also says that if we break below it, the PPT will step in to assume damage control, assuming the powers that be want the next election to proceed normally. We can rant and rave about the PE valuations, but this market lost that luster IMHO last year. It is now all about liquidity! Not really surprising; typical supply/demand stuff. Well, let's see. I show the top (for the year) about 2% above us and the bottom 18% below us. This certainly does not represent a great risk/reward ratio, which probably reflects my tendency towards cash all week. I'm now looking at the entry point to Jim's bear funds. Time for bed! Berney

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