Job Security for John LeCarre
Summary:
Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), the successor to the KGB, announced on July 8 that U.S. citizen Justine Hamilton had been caught spying in the Voronezh region in late June. On July 1, Russia expelled Lt. Col. Peter Hoffman, assistant military attache at the U.S. embassy in Moscow, also apparently for espionage. These expulsions come on the heels of the expulsion from the U.S. of a Russian UN official caught spying in April. That espionage has been and continues to be actively pursued by both countries is no surprise. What is unusual is that, despite the efforts of U.S. and Russian government officials to keep the incidents low key, the FSB seems intent on publicizing them. With spy scandals, military maneuvers, and arms transfers, Russia's hardliners are sending a signal to the West that if it refuses to treat Russia as a friend, Russia can and will behave as a foe.
Analysis:
Russian intelligence officials announced on July 8 that U.S. citizen Justine Hamilton had been caught spying on industrial facilities in the Voronezh region in June. Actual details of the incident vary. Russia's Ekho Moskvy radio reported that Hamilton, a Russian language specialist, was working as an official representative of the state of Kansas in the region when she collected "information which constituted a state secret." Ekho Moskvy said Hamilton had "displayed an active interest in the region's industrial potential."
The Associated Press carried a slightly different story, citing a Federal Security Service (FSB) spokesman as stating that Hamilton, 25, had been part of a Kansas-based university exchange program since January 1998. Hamilton was reportedly summoned to the regional FSB headquarters on June 21, where she admitted to collecting material from the region's defense factories, as well as passing economic and political information to the CIA. The FSB spokesman said Hamilton departed Russia on June 23, when her visa expired, and will not be allowed back in the country. The U.S. Embassy in Moscow reportedly would neither confirm nor deny the story.
This report comes only a week after Lt. Col. Peter Hoffman, assistant military attache at the U.S. embassy in Moscow, was deemed persona non grata by the Russian foreign ministry and ordered to leave the country. Hoffman had a week earlier received word from the foreign ministry that his presence in Russia was "undesirable." Hoffman's expulsion from Russia was reportedly seen in Washington as retaliation for the May 1 expulsion from the U.S. of a Russian UN official, who had been caught red-handed in April attempting to obtain classified information. The U.S. late last year also refused to allow a Russian agent to reenter the country when he attempted to return to the Russian Embassy following a vacation.
It seems only appropriate that, with Russian "Bear" bombers carrying out missions near Iceland for the first time in a decade, we should also see a return of the spy game. Not, of course, that the spy game ever went away, but it hasn't been as public and political as this in quite some time. According to U.S. officials, Russia has dramatically increased its espionage activity over the last six months, and has clamped down on contacts between current and former Russian military personnel and Western diplomats. Additionally, while Washington has attempted to downplay the recent incidents in an apparent effort to avoid further straining relations, Russia seems to be politicizing them. The initial request that Hoffman leave Russia coincided with Russian military flights near the Norwegian and Icelandic coasts and, in hindsight, with the Hamilton case. His expulsion also reportedly violated the unwritten rules of espionage, which reject retaliation for cases in which spies are caught red-handed -- as was the case with Russia's UN official. This latest announcement, coming weeks after the reported incident, also appears political in nature.
First with last December's Operation Desert Fox in Iraq, and reinforced with Operation Allied Force in Kosovo, Washington has made it plain that it does not consider Russian concerns to be a factor standing in the way of the U.S. and NATO's agenda. Moscow is understandably perturbed, and of the belief that if Washington will not behave as a friend, then it can only be considered a foe. Thus the resurgence of espionage and, more to the point, the public manner in which the issue is being handled.
Fundamentally these arrests change little, except perhaps to invigorate the careers of spy novelists like John LeCarre, who in the post-Cold War world have had to resort to tales of Panamanian intrigue. There always has been and always will be espionage carried out by the U.S. against Russia and by Russia against the U.S. But the symbolism is important. The military exercises, the severance of relations with NATO, the surge in arms sales, the expulsion of alleged spies -- all are reminders of what could be if the West chooses to continue behaving as if Russian interests are insignificant. They also raise the cost of reconciliation for both the West and for Russia's pro-Western faction. The Russian military and security services' newfound belligerence is a lever against both NATO and the Yeltsin government. Russia's hardliners are not ready to kiss and make up. They are not ready to return to the status quo ante, if that means letting things quiet down to Russian impotence circa November 1998. The FSB and the Russian military are just passing on a little reminder of how things were, as a warning of how they could be.
__________________________________________________
SUBSCRIBE to FREE, DAILY GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATES (GIU) stratfor.com
or send your name, organization, position, mailing address, phone number, and e-mail address to alert@stratfor.com
UNSUBSCRIBE FROM THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATES (GIU) stratfor.com ___________________________________________________
STRATFOR.COM 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: stratfor.com Email: info@stratfor.com ___________________________________________________
(c) 1999, Stratfor, Inc. |