"ATHM must focus on increasing their subscribers. This is their best offense against this open access. Investors will realize the potential of the company and will come back. The worst combination is for this open access drags and ATHM not meet their projected subscribers nos."
Roly- This open access issue is a pair of shackles holding down ATHM. It has really taken a short-term toll on the stock. I agree with you, it is SUBSCRIBERS that ATHM must focus on, as well as improving service to current customers. The earnings number is important too.
I know I have talked about my area a few times, but I am going to again make a few comments. I live in the Quad Cities which includes Moline, IL...Rock Island, IL...Bettendorf, IA...and Davenport, IA. Our local cable company (just one) is TCI. We have in excess of 500,000 people if all the suburbs are included. Not large considering coastal cities, but enormous compared to other Iowa/Illinois communities, except Chicago that is.
I heard in early '99 that TCI@Home was in my area. After several calls, I found that it was only available in Moline, IL. No promises on when they would even get to the Iowa side. I would call TCI@Home again every couple of weeks. I would get the same answer, and there was always much confusion. One needed to endure wait time on the phone, and Reps. mentioned being literally swamped.
Within the last month, TCI@Home has really gotten their act together. Not only are they available in Moline, they are supposedly available in nearly ALL of the Quad Cities. Ads even mention "little" neighboring towns being ready for hookup! I make a phone call and TCI@Home says they can be over in five days! This tells me that they are aggressive in roll-out.
Last night I talked to a few ladies at the club pool. Months ago they would have never known what @Home was. Now, as a result of an AGGRESSIVE ad campaign, they not only know about it, but plan to have it installed soon. @Home is spreading and those subscriber numbers are growing.
"Don't expect any good publicity from the media (CNBC ,etc). I bet they realize the potential of cable Internet and consider them as a threat."
I rarely hear CNBC mention ATHM. Even when they update the share prices of Internet stocks, ATHM is not mentioned. We are like a plague. I don't understand it. AOL is talked about so often, it makes me want to regurgitate. Not to mention all the air time they give their parent company.
It is all subscriber numbers and earnings. If ATHM does not come through will some impressive stats, I will be very disappointed, and more importantly, the Street will crucify this stock. ATHM has never been the darling of Wall Street and never will without stellar performance. We have seen lately that companies have to even surpass their whisper number to survive a share price beating.
Should ATHM have struck a deal with AOL and some other leading ISPs some time ago? I know this is hindsight, but maybe open access would have been a mute issue. The cries of smaller ISPs would never have been this loud. AOL has clout. Our share price has really taken a hit because of this topic. There are more battles to come, and I'm not positive that ATHM will prevail. Open access will come. It is only a matter of time. I will be happy when this issue is behind us.
Looking forward to a spectacular July 20th report!
Ed |
