Martin, Uncle Frank probably has the best answer--go back and read the old posts, both here and on the QCOM thread. Recognizing that that is a lot of reading, allow me to try a summary:
Prior to the agreement with ericcson there was still some question as to which wireless format would rule the world. It was a classic VHS vs Beta situation. With the agreement, it became clear that the standard that will evolve will be based on CDMA, evangelized by Qualcomm. And for which Q has the core critical patents.
The wireless market will grow both in number of users and amount of use per user. The world is nowhere near covered yet, and wireless applications are based on voice--to date.
The ericy deal also signalled that an agreement on "3G" would be reached. And that has been moving ahead. 3G is key to using wireless for internet access. Estimates are that once 3G is in place, use of wireless for data transmission will swamp voice as the dominant use of wireless. So the growth in users is multiplied by the amount of use. Growth is truly exponential.
And Q is at the center of it all. Companies cannot sell phones without a Q license. Q's control of existing licenses should allow it to control future advances in its own favor--much as msft has forced changes that are to its advantage, or as intc has been able to push its industry onto the Rambus bandwagon.
That means that Q should be able to control more than just the next generation. As we move to true mobile broadband wireless, Q seems to have the opportunity to control that evolution.
A final point is Q management. I love to find companies with superior management. And Q seems to have it. They have acted from an underdog position from the start, but have done everything just right to get to where they are now. For the first time they will be operating from an "overdog" (you get what I mean!) position. If they have been able to navigate the waters to date, moving forward should be a piece of cake for them! They have been able to control their strategic vision and make the correct tactical decisions throughout.
By the way, their control of wireless is augmented by several other interesting areas: They are a major player in Globalstar, which uses Q's technology and is about to roll out service beginning in September. They are a joint venture partner in Cinecomm, which just debuted a digital version of the new Star Wars movie, and promises to be the wave of the future in movie distribution. They own Omnitracs, which is a cash cow now. And they own Eudora, the e-mail software. (There is some talk that this will dovetail nicely with the evolving 3G/wireless internet standard).
One last point: Q has started to hit their quarterly numbers with room to spare. Talk on the Q thread is that they will beat even the highest "whisper" numbers. When numbers come out the Q-bees expect another significant bump.
Just some thoughts. Do your own DD, of course.
PS--Long Q. Oh, I guess you figured that out! :o). |
