Peter, great post.
I agree almost 100% with your first paragraph. I personally see Xoma shares as representing little more than call options on the success of Neuprex. Everything else -- anti-CD20, human engineering, hu1124, Mycoprex, etc. -- may affect the expiration date of these hypothetical options. In other words, those other programs may generate or have generated cash that allows the Neuprex game to continue. And, bottom line, yes, a failure in the Meningo trial would come very very close to make the options expire for good. The only qualifier depends on the answer to your question on funds to complete the trauma trial. I think they do have the funds to do it, and we may have I-prex to thank for that. However, from what I have read (*) and understand, it is hard to see Neuprex working for anything sepsis-like *if* it were to fail in Meningo.
As for your second paragraph, I am not so sure Xoma could have played it any better with BPI (E5 and sordid stories before that are another matter). And George's suggestion to take a quick look at Castello's slides is a good and relatively painless one to understand their strategy and perhaps accept its wisdom. Here is the direct link to the presentation:
xoma.com
Of course, the really macho suggestion is to read the 35-page long KPMG report AND the 140-plus references. -g- Most of the Xoma regulars are said to have done just that.
PB
(*) reading includes a glance at the KPMG report but does NOT include covering any significant portion of the 140 or so references. |
