Raymond.......
Surely, you cannot be suggesting that background conditions
(which now can't be compared with the previous earnings
season(s)) can be ignored in favour of a graphical pattern?
There is such a thing as conditional probability. :)
Consider, for example, that 60 mil shares which were previously
tied up are now loose. They don't *all* have to be dumped.
Average daily vol is 4 to 5 mil. If a small % of this is let
loose each day (I have no idea if this will happen) just what
is going to help price? Cramer is not going to help, and neither
are positive rumors -- they are almost as bad.
Look at conditions: confusing news, OLB earnings, PPI, CPI,
bond-rates, lock-up share release, options, NITE earnings,
NITE sell-off.
How the heck does one ignore all these conditions? I'm reluctant
to close my eyes to these in favour of a graph. I think TA is
fine, as long as conditions are a part of TA. In probabilistic
analysis they play a crucial part. Why would one expect them not
to be when TA is trying to guide a nondeterministic process?
Despite saying this, I'm looking to get in. (Being optimistic?).
We'll see how it plays out. I'm not willing to make predictions. |
