Bill,
Thanks for the clarification. I agree with Zeev that whether Zicam is successful comes down to distribution and marketing. I'm confident that they have the distribution down so marketing is the only remaining issue. I don't think most consumers know what homeopathic means, nor do I think they care, if the product works, they can find it easily, and they were made aware of it either through advertising, word of mouth, or publicity in the media. I would be concerned about Zicam's chances of success if it were only distributed through health foods stores such as General Nutrition, Whole Foods Market, and the like. IMO, Zicam has a totally different aura about it because it will be available at mainstream retailers such as Walmart, Kmart, Target, Walgreens, Rite Aid, Albertsons, Kroger, etc. To base one's short rationale on the fact that Zicam is labeled as homeopathic, and to call it a scam for this one and only reason, is rather shallow, IMO. Personally I think you will have a hard time selling that point to very many people, but best of luck. If I ever did short GUMM, it would be based on technical analysis for a short term trade and not the fundamental thesis. IMO, Zicam and nicotine gum will increase GumTech's revenues by 10 to 20 times in the next year and the forward fundamentals are very bullish for the company.
Dan |
