Hi everybody! I've decided to move up to the big leagues here
on the SI board from the MF board. I'll start out with a post
looking at the big picture.
Despite the fact that Ancor fell somewhat short of revenue expectations for 1996
they still continued a pattern of very consistent strong growth in FC sales.
Ancor FC sales (actual)
1992 1M
1993 2M
1994 2.7M
1995 4.3M
1996 6.3M
Here are the latest Kinnard estimates:
1997 19M (1st Qtr 2.3M, 2nd Qtr 3.0M, 3rd Qtr 6.3M, 4th Qtr 7.4M)
1998 38M
To those who are skeptical regarding the 19M, Clint Morrison says in his
latest report that his 19M estimate "is still in line with managements
worst case scenario".
To get to 19M is very easy in my opinion. If you add ST Computing $2.5M,
German contract 2.5M, Australian Contract 1.0M, Carryover revenue from
4th qtr 0.5M, CAD/CAM 6.0M left this gives you 12.5M.
Then add a very conservative 3M of the 8M to 13M Armed Forces deal
and that takes you to 15.5M. Then all you need is 3.5M in sales from the
following sources to get you to 19M.
Oil & Gas, Medical, Data Backup,other CAD/CAM,University,Other Govt,Post
Production,Broadcasting,Local TV Stations,Research Labs,Other High
Performance LANS,Other Japan sales, Additional Countries not included above,
Network Backbones, Storage OEMS, Multimedia,Financial,& New Applications
that emerge this year, (i.e. who ever talked about CAD/CAM before the 7.4M
deal last fall).
I don't think they will have a problem getting 3.5M from the above
sources to meet the 19M revenue expectation.
P.S. Note that the 4th Qtr Kinnard estimate for this year
is 7.4M. If that is achieved it will produce an annual run rate
in revenues of 29.6M. Plug in your own price to sales estimate
and factor in 13 million shares and you will be amazed at how high
a stock price that will support.
All IMHO,
Steve |
