CBAY says...
... they still have no indication when it could happen, no promise for Wednesday either.
Here are my estimates:
ANYI Low/High/Open: $5-$35 - all in the first 30 min.
ANYI Close: $18 (possible range of $8 to $25)
BANY High: $1.8 (possible range of $1.5 to $2.25)
BANY Low/Close: $0.9 (possible range of $0.50 to $1.5)
Eventual BANY trading ratio to ANYI: 15:1 to 25:1
The following very rough backdoor trading model is based on my experience with about a dozen internet IPO backdoors. The thing to expect with most backdoors is that the unexpected will happen. In general, I have observed that most backdoors peak immediately prior to the trading of the new issue, and then fall (sometimes drastically) when the new issue begins trading in a stable trading range. IMO this phenomenon is attributable to unrealistic expectations for the backdoor, massive shorting of the backdoor at its peak, and shifting out of the backdoor to the new issue.
I have no idea how BANY will react compared to other backdoors, each one has its own differing circumstances. I'm simply sharing my observations. I don't really care if they come true, or if anyone agrees with me. No matter how evenhanded I present my opinions, most people will have some problems with them. At this point I am following BANY purely for the education, I do not own any BANY. Do your own research, here's mine:
Best Case Scenario:
BANY gets 8.8% of ANYI price + $.25 inherent value (or better)
Worst Case Scenario:
BANY gets half (or worse) the 8.8% of ANYI and no inherent value
The following table depicts possible trading ranges for BANY and ANYI:
ANYI 8.8% +$0.25 50% Discount
___________________________________
5 .44 .69 .22
10 .88 1.13 .44
15 1.32 1.57 .66
20 1.76 2.01 .88
25 2.20 2.45 1.10
30 2.64 2.89 1.32
35 3.08 3.33 1.54
40 3.52 3.77 1.76
So, roughly speaking, for BANY to trade at $1.50, ANYI needs to trade between about $15-30 +/- ? IMO.
For the record, my instinct is that BANY will settle (once ANYI becomes stable) into a range around the 50% discount. I also think ANYI will settle into a price between $5 and $25, but it could trade outside of that region the first couple days. From what I've seen of BB stocks during their first few minutes of trading as RTOs, the MMs will execute the low priced sell orders first, then sell those shares to the highest buy orders, then drop back down into the middle range to establish a stable price. For instance, the MMs may pick up 1,000 shares being sold at $3-7 and sell those to the highest buy orders from $22-25. Yes, this is why IMO it is unrealistic (not impossible) to think your buy order at $5 or your sell at $30 will be filled at the open (unless you have a very good MM friend at Cbay), and this also depends on how many orders are placed before the open - and it doesn't look like many have been able to do this yet. The MM can/will make $20,000 on a 1,000 share transaction by taking advantage of anyone numb enough to sell ANYI for less than $7, or to put in a sky high buy order at the open. They'll also take full advantage of any and all market sell and buy orders. Personally, I would not place any orders until after trading already has begun.
Good luck everyone
My $0.02 |
