Intel: Short Term Stock and Option Trading/Strategies Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Intel: Short Term Stock and Option Trading/Strategies

INTC 39.99

-0.4%

Oct 31 9:30 AM EDT

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To: H.P. Yee who wrote (145)	3/23/1997 4:56:00 PM
From: Nancy	of 220

<<One the other hand, if INTC has a blow out quarter plus the split, it may very well have a 10 to 20 point run from here in the next month or two... Now is this a "dream"?>> it is a dream. intc will not have a blow-out q - they already said that, flat rev and slightly lower margin that is based on no slowdown of orders, and they maintain same comment a week ago at tech conference (I forgot which). I am sure they would not hesitate to pre-announce blow-out like they did last year, 2 q in a row. this q they told us it is flat. Key is you need to look at valuations : most intc owners dont want to think about the p/e awarded to intc from 09/96 till 01/97 is way out of line and is not sustainable at all. 15-18 based on 97 earnings are INTC price range much more in line with its growth. Not to mention intc's 98 earnings will only increase to 9.50 - 10.50 vs 97's 8.5. This is a very small growth. The huge jump in profit from 95 to 96 is largely behind us, because it is brought by production transition and corp upgrade - corp upgrade is slowing down as evident by several re-sellers cater to corp prewarn poor earnings. Product transition is not in sight until 98 - and do corp need more power machines again in such short period of time ? It took 2 years before corp warm up to win 95 and win nt to upgrade their hardwares. I have been discussed intc short term movements with jmac who doesn't think we would see intc down to 130 again only early past week. we have seen 130 twice since his disbelief. split would only affect stock price very short term and it depends on mkt sentiment at that time. MO is about to do 3-to-1 in early april and stock tumbled from 139 to 111 on negative news - of course this is not a right comparison, just to illustrate split not necessary save a stock.

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