Michael,
You are absolutely correct and I didn't phrase my thought very well. Over the long term, the stock will tell the truth. In the short term, anything can happen and that's why technical analysis is so important to me. The consumer market will also tell the truth about Zicam because if it isn't accepted or doesn't work, then it won't sell. I posted rationale for why I think it will be accepted and why I think it will sell well based on actual sales data from February to now.
I have read everyone's negative case on GUMM here. Quite frankly, nothing that was posted convinces me to sell even one share of my long position. This isn't based on bias. It's based on my desire to make money, to protect my equity, to understand the perspective of others, and to get to the truth of the matter.
The primary argument against Zicam, and the apparent reason that Bill classifies it as a "scam" is that it is homeopathic. Howard, Mike, and myself explained that this is a labeling issue only. The active ingredient in Zicam has NOT been diluted to eighteen zeros to the right of the decimal point as in "true" homeopathic solutions. Zinc has been classified as a homeopathic substance by the FDA, and as a result, Zicam can be labeled as homeopathic, even though the concentration of active ingredient is 2%. As I pointed out, GumTech did this to get Zicam to market faster and to save shareholders unnecessary expenses for phase three trials, etc. The real issue here isn't homeopathy. The issue is whether the interaction of zinc with ICAM receptors is beneficial in fighting the common cold. Dr. Epstein posted an abstract and link to research related to this issue.
Another argument relates to speculation about the company's ability to distribute and market Zicam. This is purely a judgement call by anyone here. Some think they will fail. I think they will succeed. I provided reasons why I think they will succeed based on actual events since Zicam was released. I've read no convincing arguments to the contrary.
The last argument relates to financing and I have addressed that in great detail as well.
I really see no reason to discuss GUMM anymore on this thread. Everyone's point of view has been recorded and it's time to let the market do it's thing. From a chart perspective, the stock has resistance at 13 so a short sale with a stop just above that might be a good short term play since one doesn't have to risk a lot. However, if the stock gets through 13, I think it has a good shot of running to 15 rather quickly. Beyond 15, the stock could test it's all time high at 16 1/2. GUMM has shown support at 11, and if I was short, that's where I would cover if it pulls back that much. I'm sure that you all are aware of the potential for a short squeeze because RPR Clearing is allegedly calling their borrowed stock. I don't know how true the rumor is, but it's definitely something to consider if you are short.
Best to all.
Dan |
