Stephen: I haven't done much work on GLE, but I think long run solid oxide has a lot of potential, especially if its operating temperature can be brought down some more to reduce the need for expensive alloys.
My impression was that Westinghouse/Siemens dominated that field, and that GLE was a distant second, but in any event solid oxide and carbonate have two similar positives - they are much more efficient than PEM, and, perhaps because manufacturing may be more capital intensive, haven't attracted the hoard of competitors that PEM has.
In the very unlikely event that Plug Power and the other house size PEM guys meet cost targets and actually have a product on the market at a reasonable price in a few years, I think you will see intense competition. GE will sell the Plug Power product, but it will be competing with Maytag selling the Ballard product, Sears selling the Avista product, Carrier selling the UTX product, etc. The red ink will go on for years.
Meanwhile, utilities and others wanting high efficiency high temp fuel cells will have relatively few suppliers, who can make a nice margin. And they can charge a decent price because their products will be so much more efficient than PEM that the buyers will make up the extra expense in fuel savings and environmental benefits in short order. |
