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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound
REFR 1.590-0.6%10:24 AM EST

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To: Bill Wexler who wrote (2093)7/13/1999 10:38:00 PM
From: Hank  Read Replies (2) of 10293
 
Bill,

I have a tip for you. Remember when I told you some time ago to short Viropharma (VPHM) when it was in the 20's? Subsequent to that recommendation, VPHM crashed to the single digits. Now it is on a major rally once again based on it's phase II results for Pleconaril. Pleconaril is an antiviral with limited applications and has been VPHM's only ace in the hole since it's very inception. It is only useful in severe cases of picronavirus infections (cold viruses) such as viral respiratory Infections (VRI) and viral meningitis. In other words, it's target patient population is composed entirely of people with compromised immune systems such as the elderly, AIDS patients etc. I believe this drug has very limited profit potential due to the limited number of patients that may use it. Even if it is approved by the FDA, it is not likely to generate significant revenue for VPHM, especially since they do not have the capacity to manufacture and market the drug themselves (ie they'll have to give away a large chuck to whomever agrees to do this for them). Furthermore, the current press release about the phase II studies on pleconaril fail to mention the fact that it is only effective against approximately 50% of the 101 rhino viruses that can cause the aforementioned diseases. VPHM supposedly has other compounds under investigation for viruses such as RSV but they are not even in phase I yet. The stock is on it's way to hype city after todays release and should be watched closely for another short opportunity.
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