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Strategies & Market Trends : Dawg's Place

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To: Junkyardawg who wrote (1150)7/13/1999 11:22:00 PM
From: DZOO  Read Replies (2) of 2751
 
ATHM: Did you get any advice? This is the situation as I see it.
1. Open access issue on local level will continue to be thorn in the side short term
2. Legislation enabling open access in congress will go in the trash this go around
3. Service problems continue on the west coast but it's the same kind of teething pains AOL had in its infancy. I just don't know if the market will be as kind to ATHM as they were to AOL.
4. Watch the customer growth rate and if its ahead of schedule or at least on track ATHM should do ok
5. The main price driver will be the open access issue. The FCC is on ATHM's side
6. I think ATT will win the appeal or at the very least the FCC will step in. They don't want to slow down infrastructure growth.
7. In my opinion it boils down to a fight between AOL and ATT.
8. If you notice AOL is making deals just in case open access is denied. And I think it will be.
9. If open access is allowed to happen ATHM is toast. AOL will kill them.
10. If open access is defeated AOL is toast. ATHM will kill them.

Just my thoughts. Hope it helps. As you know I'm long ATHM at this time. Of course thats subject to change at any moment. Good luck.
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