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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 262.92

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Dec 29 3:59 PM EST

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To: Jeffrey D who wrote (31436)	7/14/1999 3:13:00 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (1) of 70976

>> Yikes, these guys say the recovery could last seven years and that they see no way supply can keep up with demand. Hope they're right. Jeff<< Uh oh. I think we may have the first sign of a top. The last time anyone predicted an upswing longer than 2-3 years was 1995 (no more cycles!). I didn't see the presentation, but the press release doesn't indicate a good grasp of industry dynamics. Huge demand results in huge capacity increases, whether from existing companies or new ones. 18 months later when all that capacity comes online, well... look at 1996. Katherine

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