My guess on what will happen today.
No question that Intel opens up. The only rating change was SSB, and that was up. (Actually, ABN Amro cut their rating, but nobody cares what they say.) The PPI number was great. Most analysts had been talking up the stock in the past couple of weeks, saying that they anticipated an upbeat outlook. As I type this, the stock is trading around 67«.
But the buy side won't buy it. The analysts can talk all they want, but in the back of everyone's mind, they won't like the fact that everyone is cutting their numbers at the same time that they say everything is ok. In addition, when all those junior analysts at Fidelity are punch in the new lower earnings estimates in their handy dandy Excel spreadsheets with an unchanged earnings growth rate, guess what? The model spits out a lower stock price. The portfolio managers sell.
Then, the momentum guys, who bought on the open, turn around and not only sell their long shares but also start to short. That momentum feeds on itself.
Open: around here, 67«
Peak, around 10:00 or so, at 68
Close: 63
Just my guess. |
