Wind River going up, up, up! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!

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To: Snowshoe who wrote (5856)	7/14/1999 12:06:00 PM
From: Snowshoe	Read Replies (2) of 10309

Matt Belkin of H&Q responds... I decided to email Matt Belkin. His response sounds reasonable to me. He says he was talking about existing customers buying new seats, not upgrading... Hi Greg, Thanks for the comments. Yes, I understand the call is rather controversial and I do follow some of the chat rooms you mentioned so I'm more or lessaware of the going investor sentiment for my report. First let me say that I think Wind is an excellent long-term investment. Period. I own the stock myself and will continue to for the next several years. That said, for the reasons I outlined in the report, I believe the next few quarters contain more risk than has historically been the case. Since valuation essentially equates to growth discounted for risk, I believe the stock will trade inline with the market and hence the Market Perform rating. When visibility improves and management is more willing to discuss the health of the business with analysts, I'm happy to review the rating. To the point on upgrades - I understand the provisions of the maintenance agreements with existing customers - this is standard practice in the software industry. What I am referring to is new seat purchases from existing customers. Are existing Wind customers buying new seats of Tornado II? The majority I spoke with had yet to do so. With regard to TMS, yes, this is disappointing and confusing. Jerry notes no delay in TMS, but my conversations with the Wind salesforce suggest a delay of 2-3 months. If there is in fact no delay with TMS, it is unfortunate that customers are being told there is. This suggests a breakdown of communication within Wind, which could be reflective of the current CEO transition. Either way, more near-term risk. That's all I have time for but I hope this helps clarify some of the confusion. Feel free to post this wherever you see fit. - Matt.

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