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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: kash johal who wrote (65225)7/14/1999 2:35:00 PM
From: Charles R  Read Replies (2) of 1578425
 
Kash,

<But remember Intel can simply choose to build more PIII's than Celerys. I suspect they will do this to stabilize ASPs. >

Intel may try this but will get burnt if Via/Cyrix can deliver Gobi. That is a high risk strategy. I would be surprised if VIA isn't going about making plans for FIC MB + VIA shipset + Gobi package shipments for Q4. An easier way for Intel to make the guidance will be to flatten out the pricing curve - this IMHO is far more likely.

About channel stuffing: I think the extra product they pumped into the channel in June could come back to haunt them next Q just like it did AMD this Q. I was expecting about $100-$150M stuff but $400M is a bit much. If you look at the IABG results, it seems like they pushed hard on ASPs and just didn't get enough Xeon growth to make up for it.

By the way, I thought the conf call was weak but the street (with the exception of Niles) seems to disagree. What are your thoughts on the cc?

Chuck
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