I don't know about the "near term," but I've been lurking long enough to qualify as a genuine bench-warmer, and now I've developed a game plan.
Here 'tis: Sometime within the next two-to-three trading sessions, I'm going to average down my (minor but still painful) position around this $10 price. Then I'm going to give Mr. Paulson & Co. TWO MORE MONTHS to make good on my investment.
Reasoning: Mr. Paulson gets out of the hospital this weekend, and there will be ample opportunity for conferences and public relations in New York next week (July 19-23), as has already been noted (thanks to the person who called their office). "Market conditions," which have been cited before as prohibitive to the launching of an IPO, are now obviously excellent. Surely, even at the slow pace with which NAVR has moved to date, they feel motivated to follow up on their SEC filings and the publicity which Internet-based radio is receiving from more aggressive competitors. There is a groundswell for which they have, unwittingly or not, positioned this company.
If no action is taken within the next month, I'm going to assume that it's because (deep breath here) "these things take time." Mr. Paulson's had plenty of time to reflect, and the company has had every opportunity to lay the groundwork for constructive action. Things might not happen NOW because (and I'm reaching here) there's a lot of players with whom to coordinate. (I know I'm making excuses for them, but I'm doing it within the context of an ultimatum.)
If the trap isn't sprung in July, then the only reason for the company to continue to exist in August (it's raison d'etre) is to bring the IPO to fruition and/or join forces with another company and/or participate in a buyout in September. Every Internet-savvy college kid'll be back in a dorm room hooking up their systems for the academic year, and it'll be prime time for NAVR/NETR to show its strength.
If something doesn't happen by the end of the third full week of September, I'll have to conclude that the company is sadly inept and undeserving of any more of my time and money. I expect the market to contract in its normal fear-of-October mood, and the opportunity cost of staying with NAVR will then be too high to tolerate.
This is my strategy. It helps me to have an overview of what I want to do, before I get pulled in to day-to-day momentum and lose a sense of overall perspective. If nothing has materialized and I'm still holding out hope, please do as "David of Ontario" suggests and slap me back to reality!
Does this sound like a reasonable strategy to other travellers (traders-turned-investors) on this thread? NAVR, I'm holding you accountable. Can you live up to your promises and finally deliver within this timeframe? If you can't keep your commitments, it's ridiculous to expect investors to keep faith with you. Redemption is in your hands, and we've all been suffering long enough to deserve it!
Emerald |
