fwiw, i think the last hour friday will be very strong. i don't know if option market makers and traders are in cahoots, but i remember expiry friday, january, 99. i had some msft options. msft reported the following week. in the last half hour, msft moved 3 or 4 points, maybe more... seems like the traders waited until most of the options were cashed in. look at the open interest in july 95 and 100 calls.
anyway, i expect 97-98 by friday, with a close around, perhaps over, 100. and yeah, i do have july calls... but i also have augusts which i am holding over earnings, contrary to usual option trading discipline. i expect an absolute blowout... followed by a gap up on tues morning, when i plan to sell my augusts. again, see MSFT price performance in january in relation to earnings reports & expiration week.
of course, if everyone reads this post, all the hedgies will get into the act, and my strategy will be arbitraged away. but no one ever read anything worth reading on a message board anyway, right? ;)
jake |
