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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club

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To: marc ultra who wrote (6770)	7/14/1999 8:50:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) of 15132

Marc: Re: "Wonder if they'll have a lot more legs given good fundamentals or if they may poop out in August or so matching the last big up cycle." These have more to run short term so long as Greenspan stays on the bench. Mo - mo has just entered the game today. If word gets out that AMAT will blow its quarter away ending July, these will run more. But I see the early signs of an intermediate top in this sector and this top could last up to six months if it is a multi year chip cycle and the stocks could correct significantly. Re: "This earning cycle likely to last longer but have the next year or two been discounted?" EVERYONE believes this is a multi year chip cycle. I mean EVERYONE. So that is priced into these stocks now and they can only disappoint if this turns out not to be the case. And nobody, I repeat, nobody knows for sure if the cycle has legs for that long. But let's assume that the consensus is right and this is a multi year chip cycle. Even so, A MULTI YEAR CHIP CYCLE DOES NOT EQUAL MULTI YEAR STOCK PRICE APPRECIATION AND IT DOES NOT MEAN THERE WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT POCKETS OF AIR.

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