Poll: Giuliani leads Hillary Clinton
First lady ‘listens' again — this time outside New York city
Hillary Rodham Clinton's "Listening Tour" on Tuesday included talks with beachgoers in Wantagh, N.Y.
By Miguel Llanos and Lia Macko MSNBC
July 14 — An opinion poll released Wednesday has Hillary Rodham Clinton trailing New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani in the New York Senate race for the first time in six surveys this year. But pollsters said the potential race is still “very competitive” and that both need to work on “issues” they have with New Yorkers.
Who would make a better U.S. senator for New York?
* 17412 responses
Hillary Clinton 18%
Rudolph Giuliani 82%
OF THE 515 New York voters surveyed earlier this week by the independent Marist Poll, 47 percent favored Giuliani in next year's race, 41 percent backed Clinton and 12 percent were undecided.
In the previous poll, in April, Clinton was ahead with 43.5 percent while Guiliani had 42.8 percent.
Clinton's lead was greatest in the first poll, last January, when it was 52 percent vs. 42 percent.
While not the first time a poll has had Clinton trailing — a Zogby International survey had Giuliani ahead by 9 percentage points last March — it reflects a Marist Poll trend showing steadily eroding support for the first lady.
Poll director Lee Miringoff talks to MSNBC about the "carpetbagger" and other issues
The nearly 12 percentage point drop shows Clinton's support base “has eroded over time,” said pollster Barbara Carvalho of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion.
But Carvalho said the potential race is still “very competitive” with neither at or above 50 percent support. Moreover, “both seem to have issues with New Yorkers,” she said.
Among those: Giuliani is seen as weaker when it comes to working with others in Congress, while Clinton is seen as weaker when it comes to who would fight harder for New York in Washington.
And more voters are “a great deal” or “somewhat” concerned that Clinton is not from New York state. That percentage has grown from 46 percent to 52 percent.
GEOGRAPHY, GENDER & AGE
Carvalho described it as a “very partisan” race so far, with Giuliani unable to break through the Democratic stronghold of New York City. There, Clinton's support is at 61 percent.
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On the other hand, Giuliani's lead widened slightly in upstate New York and the suburbs — key areas because they have a higher percentage of swing voters, Carvalho said.
In terms of gender, 53 percent of men support Giuliani while women are evenly split. Carvalho noted that an age gap exists among women, with those 45 and over being more supportive of Giuliani, while those under 45 are more supportive of Clinton.
The Marist poll estimated its margin of error at plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
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‘LISTENING TOUR' CONTINUES
Clinton on Tuesday took her “listening tour” beyond New York City, mingling with people at a beach in Wantagh and with teachers, parents, students and community leaders in a suburb.
On Wednesday she was expected in Long Island for a forum on gun control and a discussion on health issues in Great Neck.
At a Tuesday event on education and welfare-to-work programs, reporters outnumbered participants.
Most of the informal conversation at Westchester Community College focused on whether the state does enough to meet the educational needs of children and single parents struggling to make the transition from welfare to work. Clinton commended businesses working with community colleges to prepare individuals for jobs in local communities, and praised creative community efforts to help teachers upgrade their skills.
She appeared to strike a chord with the young voters in the crowd.
Local coverage of the first lady's "listening tour" from WNBC, New York
‘YOUNG AT HEART'
Kevin Ahern, one of several college students invited to participate in the event, called the first lady “young at heart,” and said he was impressed by her mannerisms, as much as her message.
“She really seems willing to listen and seems to care for young people, which is generally otherwise lacking in the political system right now,” he said. “Youth activists are not encouraged to participate in the debate. I like the fact she appears willing to welcome the participation of the voices otherwise lost in the shuffle.”
The No. 1 issue for students is financial aid, said Ahern, who participated in student government at the community college. “We should make college more affordable, and not hold knowledge hostage,” he said.
‘She really seems willing to listen and seems to care for young people.'
— KEVIN AHERN
New York student, on Hillary Rodham Clinton Ahern, who is also a Model United Nations representative, said it is time to “move the government into the classroom and the classroom into the government,” and also suggested the creation of a government “youth bureau” designed to address issues affecting young adults such as drugs, abortion rights and gun violence.
Clinton's one potential political weakness, according to Ahern and the other students, is the “carpetbagger issue.”
“I think she is great, and that her ideas are focused toward the young generation, but I think lots of other people will consider the carpetbagger factor when voting,” said Renata Parras.
Another student, Adam Hunger, echoed these concerns. “I like Hillary, but for some people the residence issue might become relevant.” |
