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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc

ATHM 23.48

+1.2%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: E. Davies who wrote (12430)	7/14/1999 10:03:00 PM
From: sillen	Read Replies (1) of 29970

The real problem with "open" access is that I don't see how it can be implemented in a way that does not overwhelm the rollout of cable and delay it for a minimum of 1-2 years. I believe that is a very evident problem the "locals" tend to dismiss. Probably because they have no idea what technical factors are involved. Meanwhile the "locals" are making up new laws as fast as they can "to better serve the customer." I can assure you that every ruling so far and potential "forced access" ruling in the future will be appealed by the cable cos. So while the lawyers are making more money the fast cable Internet access rollout will get slower and slower as the carrot is taken away. Eventually, at the time when these rulings, reach the level where anybody with real jurisdiction can make a decision the new Cable Communications Act of 2001, which I'm sure is already being worked on, is cleared through congress. Then of course every "local" will get jurisdiction of setting the wholesale rates for the pipes and as a result more time will be spent in court for every party involved attempting to provide broadpipe access through the cable debating what rates are fair to each other. In conclusion: I think we will see another public statement by some FCC member about this issue in the very short term. Probably not going to make a big difference for ATHMs stock price though; that will be taken care of when they report subscriber growth and earnings. I don't think SF will force access, but then again never know with liberal SF. Next stop will be the 9th circuit appeal at the end of October by AT&T for the Portland decision. No big deal as the Portland decision should be overruled. At the same time ATHM can provide its services through any medium it wants (xDSL, FTC, Wireless, broadband pigeons), including cable. AOL is betting on the slow moving RBOCs (xDSL) and satellite (Hughes). To me you have to have a lot of courage to count on those parties to provide fast rollout of fast Internet access to your subscribers!? Later Sillen

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