"Geek" and "Loser" are amongst my favourite words, so thankyou for
those ! Thankyou also for the stock price prediction. Let's see.....
So let me justify my rationale -
1) The single-chip solution that Neomagic has created is undoubtedly
a neat idea/product and offers some genuine advantages. The three main
ones being (a) it's a single-chip and therefore easier to manufacture
with, (b) it's internal memory architecture offers high bandwidth,
(c) no external memory and I/O drive requirements ensures low power
consumption.
2) Neo's idea is such a good one that most of the other notebook
graphics vendors have now announced their own plans for single-chip
solutions. Trident (I believe) and Chips (definately) are well on
track to offer competing products. Note however that these other
companies will only offer such products as PART of their overall
graphics line-up - i.e. this isn't such a good idea in ALL application
areas. Neo will therefore have stiff competition in their own product
area, whilst their competitors will be claiming share in the new area
created by Neo.
3) Neomagic have been unfortunate to introduce their product at a time
when world DRAM prices have crashed. This (harsh) commercial reality
now means that one of their original selling arguments (cost) has now
been eradicated. It has also cost them margin at a time when they have
the market to themselves.
4) They have won some interesting design-in names, but seemingly no
high-volume products.
5) There are rumours about supply difficulties. (Please note that
I have NO first hand knowledge of this and NO DESIRE to participate
in a rumour mill - i.e. this could simply be competitors propaganda
and I would be keen to establish some truth here - However, start-ups
have a habbit of hitting development/production difficulties, so there
may be some truth here).
6) Single-chip controllers are a neat idea, but where does Neomagic go
from here ? They need a hell of a lot more building blocks before they
have a rounded product portfolio.
So, this brings me back to my original comment. Neomagic so far are a
one idea company, competing in a highly competetive market, where
well funded established players will aggressively plug the gap that
has been identified. Where do Neomagic go from here ? They
now at least have some cash in the bank which will give them some breathing
space. However, the money they have raised is equivalent to CHPS R&D
spend for about 18months. They have a lot of technology to develop and
probably a price war to fight, just to survive. This isn't going to
be easy.
You may be interested to track down my posts on the CHPS thread
for more technical/commercial details about this market, the direction
in which the technology is moving, and what will be required to
compete here in twelve months time. The LCD control and 3D technology
that CHPS are working on are the way forward.........
That's why I believe this company is currently overrated. I would be
pleased to hear any arguments you have for why you think they will be
successful. |
