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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology - Fundamentals
STX 276.28+4.0%11:14 AM EST
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To: Sam who wrote (992)7/15/1999 12:21:00 AM
From: Robert Douglas  Read Replies (3) of 1989
 
Sam,

<<We could speculate to we're blue in the face about today's jump, but it would be mostly hot air. These are cyclical stocks that may be growth cyclicals but cyclical nonetheless.>>

Absolutely true. I still haven't given up hope that there is another period of true growth left in this industry. Honest to god revenue growth, not just unit growth and falling ASPs. And I still think that the likeliest source of this growth will be technology purchases from the world outside the U.S. Intel's breakdown of growth yesterday seems to indicate that Asia is coming back while Europe is still in the dumps. The next two years, IMO, will return the world to much faster growth rates than we have seen the past two years. I believe this will result in a jump in spending on technology, including disk drives.

I think a lot of investors have given up on these stocks as well as other groups that I follow - like the semiconductor equipment stocks. That thread used to be a hub of activity and despite the huge runup recently in that industry, the thread is but a fraction of its former self. That's just the way markets work I suppose. 90% of the time they move on emotions. That is my only explanation of today's move.

-Robert


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