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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 222.69+0.1%Nov 19 3:59 PM EST
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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (67750)7/15/1999 1:47:00 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz  Read Replies (1) of 164684
 
>> I wonder what happens to eBay's earnings if Beanie Bay trades go down by 15% and high-end categories like Photo and Electonics trades go up by 15%.
<<

You're point is absolutely relevant. I have thought about it, and obviously have no answer without the Q report or 10-Q and 10-K. The reasonable thing to assume is that the mix will not vary dramatically from Q to Q. Also, I don't ascribe the slow growth of auction counts to technical outages. I wonder if the demand for eBay's service is past the explosive growth stage (KIS refers to it as the law of large numbers).

I did for a while try to examine the completed auctions and see what kind of prices prevail in the large categories. It was too hard and I gave up. But an impression is that a large number of auctions had zero bids on the final day. Sometimes half of a category. ANd frequently a fourth.

Another impression from examining the 10-Q is that eBay's accounting has big swings in expenses, depreciation, non-operational rev, etc.... I think it is fully within their capability to report whatever they want for Q2. So very probably the focus will be on auction revenue, since that can not be manipulated.

Truly the uncertainties of the big Internet stocks are much more interesting than any Las Vegas casino game.
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