OptionsNerd.com Morning Briefing
Thursday, 7/15/99
Market Comments: Overseas equity markets are higher. S&P 500 futures pointing to a positive opening for U.S. stocks (S&P 500 Futures are trading 4.90 points above fair value).
Apple's earnings beat the Street, as did Advanced Micro Devices. Other earnings news in techs and blue chips also came in on the positive side, which combined with more positive economic news (tame June CPI), should provide some juice to kick US equities higher. However, our key put/call ratios are flashing bearish, with the CBOE equity-only daily put/call ratio spiking yesterday well into bearish levels on big volume.
The 10-day moving average CBOE equity only put/call ratio now sits well inside bearish levels, as does the 10-day moving average of the CBOE total put/call daily ratio. So BEWARE on the long side.
Any excuse to take profits will lead this market sharply lower.
The narrow range we are locked in provides an excellent channel to trade out of, provided we get a pick up in volatility, which may not come today, or tomorrow. Nevertheless, a move higher from this range (see 60 minute bar chart of OEX/SPX) may set up a false breakout and reversal trade, which would also provide a nice entry point for an OEX put trade.
The key to profitable trading of the OEX is patience: waiting for choice setups.
Meanwhile, in our trading room, we have been adding more intraday trades of the S&P 500 futures to keep us busy, with our new "X-trade" setups currently being introduced.
As always, we will keep you posted regarding any trade signals.
Happy Trading!
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Outlook for U.S. Equities
Short-Term Outlook
(1-3 days): Neutral-to-Bearish
Medium-Term Outlook
(1-4 weeks) Neutral-to-Bearish
Long-Term Outlook
(8-16 months) Bearish
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Financial and Overseas
Equity Markets
(8:43 AM EDT)
Paris CAC 40: +1.48%
Frankfurt DAX: +.73%
London FTSE-100: +.83%
Japan Nikkei: +.40%
HK Hang Seng: +1.35%
$/Yen +.12% [8:10 EDT]
$/DMark +.15%[8:10 EDT]
30-Year T-Bond Yield: 5.88% (-.35%)[8:44 EDT]
S&P 500 Futures: +3.80 [8:46 EDT]
Comments: Overseas equity markets are higher. S&P 500 futures pointing to a positive opening for U.S. stocks (S&P 500 Futures are trading 4.90 points above fair value).
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OEX Options, S&P Futures and Stock News
U.S. stock index futures settle mostly higher (Reuters)
biz.yahoo.com - Jul 14 5:27 PM EDT
U.S. debt futures end weaker, dealer selling seen (Reuters)
biz.yahoo.com - Jul 14 4:28 PM EDT
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Major Averages and Indexes
(Previous Close)
DJIA:-0.2%
DJTA: +0.5%*
DJUA: UNCH
S&P 500: +0.3%
NASDAQ: +1.4%
Russell 2000: +0.7%
NYSE Comp.: +0.2%
AMEX: +0.1%
*Transports failing to confirm 1999 DJIA new highs--bearish divergence.
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OEX (S&P 100) Daily Data
High=722.98
Low=715.61
Close=721.58
Change=+1.79 (+0.2%)
Pivot=720.06
Pivot 3DMA=720.32
10-Day Average Daily (Outside) Range=11.52*
R1=724.51
S1=717.14
R2=727.43
S2=712.69
*To project today's high/low, add this value to the low of the first hour of trading (=projected day's high) and subtract it from the high of the first hour of trading (=projected day's low). These projected levels would apply if a daily trend develops outside of the first hour of trading. This is not an exact science, but does give a basic framework to help with trading decisions.
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S&P 500 Futures
Settlement Prices
Previous Trading Day
SEP99 (Spoos)
Open=1403.10
High=1410.70
Low=1396.00
Last=1409.10
Settlement=1409.20
Change=+550
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Market Internals
NYSE Volume=749 Million (+)
NYSE Breadth=+137 (+)*
NYSE Up/Dwn Vol Ratio=1.2 (+)
NYSE 10-DMA Adv/Dec Ratio=1.05 (-)
NYSE New High/New Lows=89/42 (+)
TICK=+768
TRIN=.91
*NYSE cummulative advance-decline remains in bearish decline, as do cummulative advance-decline lines for all major U.S. stock exchanges (data not shown here).
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Market Sentiment
Equity Only Put-Call Daily Ratio=.32 (-)
Equity Only Put-Call Ratio 10-DMA=.364 (-)*
OEX Put-Call Ratio Daily=1.21 (+)
OEX Put-Call Ratio 10-DMA=1.20 (+)
Total CBOE Put-Call Ratio=.49 (-)
Total CBOE Put-Call Ratio 10DMA=.0.49**
VIX=20.38 (Previous Close=20.23 ) (Change= -.73%)
* Bearish
**Bearish
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OEX Trade Positions
OEX1: Flat OEX. No trades.
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ATTENTION OEX TRADERS! The dates for the OptionsNerd.com's next OEX
Weekend Trading Seminar (in beautiful Greenwich, CT) have been set: Sept. 17-19, 1999. We are taking a limited number of traders. Stop flying blind with the OEX. Eliminate pilot error before it eliminates you!
Click here optionsnerd.com for seminar
topics, schedule and sign-up info.
**Disclaimer: Trading is risky business. Past performance can never
guarantee futures results. Trade at your own risk. All losses are your own. |
