Hello FiloF: [some thoughts at length]
I agree bandwidth consumption is likely to go up dramatically.
Sensory wise people are something like 80% visual. We like resolution. We like visual effects.
The Internet is mostly text content. With increased bandwidth available at no increase in cost ($20/month) I believe that bandwidth will be used while people are up and also sopped up around the clock (computers are great for running while people are sleeping).
We have affordable cameras, affordable software, affordable computers, affordable storage, and limited visual content at this time. I expect the next 3-5 years forward are going to be the proving ground of going from text bandwidths of 28K or 56K to 10-fold that with visual content driving and all the other applications--ASP's, expanded use of interconnectivity, etc filling in larger roles, too.
In my estimation people are far from satiated in their appetites for high quality visual content by Internet. It is well that there is a lot of dark fiber laid. It's day is coming. Now if I could only determine the specifics a priori, then there would be money to be made. It will be dynamic.
It is too early to tell how much of a role LVLT will play other than how astute, energetic, and careful their management is. No one can do it all without making mistakes. I believe LVLT has strong management--they will participate, but there is no guarantee they will prevail. I am a sideliner for now and certainly wished I had jumped in in the last year and then out at 90. But it all looked the same to me--I could not tell what was going on.
So much is predicated on future events for which I do not understand the technical features adequately to estimate who is positioning for dominant technology. My sense is no one will. This is the infrastructure business, so it will be regional and grounded in the physical facilities. Much like electrical distribution, gas pipelines, telephone networks and such businesses that serve regions. Which ultimately begs, how do you get premium dollars out of infrastructure business in the long run?
I think LVLT has struck at the right time with heavy infusions of abundantly available capital at a time when no one really knows or understands how this will shake out. It would be nice to see a major correction in the market that takes out the Internet fluff and other excessive stock prices. That would be a better tell to me at such a time what LVLT is worth by market sentiment. Too tough for me to do now. I would like to think in such a correction LVLT would end up being a premium priced stock issue in their segment due to management's potential.
Best regards,
m |
