Hi everyone -
Long time since I've posted. I've been away on business, and have not been able to give the market my full attention. Just getting back into the swing of things, and it sure is nice to be able to get a good picture of the market by spending some time on this thread and checking out the MDA website. A big thank-you to all those who post there!
In terms of the stock markets, I tend to agree with Donald. We can trade sideways here and remain on very bullish footing. This would open up room for a substantial rally in the near future. However, I see our medium-term uptrend support in the Dow, for instance, coming in around 11,000 now. This uptrend was broken during the last period of consolidation, but now we have regained the trendline. That is probably very bullish, with the caveat that a break below 11,000 calls into question whether this last upmove was a final squeeze to get rid of the shorts in the market. This looks more likely on the S&P chart than on the Dow chart. The Dow looks like it is very likely about to embark on a substantial upmove (subwave 3 of wave 5 of the upmove since October 98...expect that this wave 5 should run 2,000 points at least to be similar to 1, resulting in a target of 12,500 or similar). This count fails though if we drop back below 11,000. The S&P has a similarly important support around 1375/1380 - which is not a lot of room for error. And I can't seem to get a count which makes sense in the S&P. There it just looks like we are doing a final squeeze.
The Nasdaq has the most room - it looks to be setting up a more solid move.
Bonds continue to look like a good buy. Yields could spike short-term to near 6%, but the top has been put in, and we are headed lower in yields/higher in (bond) price.
That's my initial read - muddled as usual!
Regards,
j.o. |
