Toby,
Any move south to the $50 is a desire on my part, not a prediction. $50 post-split was a number I picked because it was the level that PMCS had difficulty getting through before the split (late April through May). I'm not sure I said we would do this 100% positively "for sure", I think I said that it wouldn't matter for the long term investor.
Retracements of rallies on the order of 50-66% are common from my chart reading days, so if I said it went from $50 to $70 on this run, then $57 to $60 on the downside isn't too implausible. Which is right about where the 50 day SMA is.
TD mentioned that these stocks are priced for perfection and I'd have to agree. My best guess is we could just churn around here for quite a while until the eps or at least eps expectations rise a bit.
As far as brokerage houses, I would agree that they are a short term phenomena, but isn't that what we were talking about with the original $85 post on eps news?
Kurlak was an ass. His "chips are chips" quote was amazing. I listened in on that conference call and it was the single stupidest thing I've ever heard come out of the mouth of someone who was that highly revered at the time, but he still whacked PMCS big time when the story wasn't as widely understood and he still had a following. Smart money bet against him because it was clear he didn't have a clue, but that didn't shake the long term investor.
The lack of upward movement on the "idea du jour" has two implications in my mind.
1. Either no one was biting when 30,000 brokers called with the "idea du jour" (a strong possibility). Or...
2. Any buying generated by the "idea du jour" was met by selling of equal magnitude. You have to look at the tape to be sure.
My conclusion is that, at least for the time being, the path of least resistance is not up. So I concluded it might be down.
Now all of this doesn't mean beans to me in the long run. I'll buy more if PMCS collapses and sit tight if it doesn't.
Idle speculation on a hot summer day.
Your comment of a 30% loss? I think that would shake some of the long-timers I think is wrong. I'm sure that if PMCS pulled back to $50, you would see many people on this thread who have seen this stuff before just load up and wait for the market to figure it out again.
Anyway that's just my opinion. Nothing more. |
