Gimbel Vision International Inc. (GBV - ASE) Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gimbel Vision International Inc. (GBV - ASE)

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To: Cal Gary who wrote (115)	7/15/1999 2:48:00 PM
From: Glen Gordon	Read Replies (1) of 165

The procedure numbers look good. I've been tracking the results for two years and it's difficult to track a pattern in the earnings numbers vs. the procedure numbers - mainly because Gimbel keeps changing the way they report. Hopefully the new CFO has a grip on things and reporting will stay more consistent. Based on Q199 numbers, GBV earned roughly 7 cents for every dollar of revenue and the revenue per procedure was about $930. The revenue per procedure was down considerably from previous quarters because of the price cuts in some of their centers. The real problem is that procedures from US clinics contribute significantly to the bottom line whereas in Canada they actually lost money. So this makes it difficult to predict Q2 earnings when it isn't clear how many were performed in the US versus Canada...but here goes anyway. For Q2 If earnings per $ revenue stay at 7 cents and Revenues drop to $900 per procedure. Rev: 5.78 M Earnings: 405 K EPS: 1.8 cents. If earnings per S of revenue are 8 cents & rev/procedure stays at $930 (note that 7 cents is the lowest they've had, and 14 cents is the highest). Rev: 5.97 M, Earnings: 478 K, EPS 2.1 cents. If earnings per dollar of revenue are 10 cents (which is quite possible) and revs/procedure increase (i.e. the procedure growth in the US was greater than in Canada) to $950. Rev: $6.1 Earnings: 610 K EPS: 2.7 cents. My feeling is that the numbers will be somewhere in between the second and third scenario. Using this basis, it could reasonably be expected that GBV would earn 10 cents per share in 1999 (even without opening new clinics). At a price of $2.50, that's a P/E of 25. I think when you compare that to TLC and others, you can see why GBV has started to move. Add to this that they expect to announce at least 3 and as many as 5 new clinics this year (probably all in the US) and GBV now appears to be an excellent value at twice its current price. The addition of 3 new clincs would be a growth of about 25% when the clinics get up to speed - think TLC can do that? BTW, I'm also from Missouri on the new clinics. The year is half over and nothing yet. I expect they'll announce at least two prior to the earnings release. Regards

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