Hi Gopherbroke.
The following is a duplicate of a post to Stockhouse. Seems like everyone has left the building but someone may drop by with a comment.
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I've always questioned the line "the market always knows." Seems to me the market proves daily that it knows nothing.
There is another line that "the market is always right." I've learned, sometimes the hard way, that this line is correct. Much as I may sometimes disagree with a market quote, that's what I have to go by. There is no alternative so it's always right.
This leads us to Dumont. Some may disagree with todays price but it's right. The next question is "does the market know" and that's what we need to discuss. At this point we can speculate that the 3 holes are complete on LR2. Core may be in Val d'Or awaiting assay but again we don't know. Because the price is down, we can speculate results were not good and there has been a leak... but we don't know.
Moving along to the next question, it's the same one I asked here a week ago or more. What's the thinking on LR1 where 6 holes are scheduled. As posted earlier, from my unskilled read of information presented by Dumont, this would look to be the better bet geologically.
If correct, let's look at the situation as of today. Possibly 3 holes out of a total planned 23 may have been completed (that's speculation). Possibly, and I think probably the best areas remain to be drilled (that's an opinion). Meanwhile, the stock has corrected almost 50% from it's former high on light volume that would indicate no news or leaks in either direction. Lastly, this selloff was to be expected as risk averse types like myself reduced or eliminated their positions. The silence of posters on this and other threads makes it clear that many already exited.
Consequently, the last and only remaining question is "what's the re-entry price." If you agree that little has changed with Dumont's chances at Raglan, then today's price has to start looking attractive. We can probably assume that potential bad news from LR2 has already been prematurely discounted in current price while the upside potential remains.
In a nutshell, that means less risk with the same high potential reward as before. If correct, that would indicate we have a buy situation and are at or near the point of re-entry.
If there's anyone out there to poke holes in the logic, fire away.
Bob
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