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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: kash johal who wrote (65588)7/15/1999 5:34:00 PM
From: Greater Fool  Read Replies (2) of 1573435
 
Good points, all. Allow me to toss in a response or two:

>>Q2 2000 is when they can crank 3-6 millions/Qtr

I don't think there's anything (from a technical point of view) stopping AMD from switching over 100% to Athlon immediately. They'll be sorely tempted to do that as K6 asp's slide very rapidly in 2H99. (Note that AMD is having significant difficulty getting solidly to 500MHz on K6, a speed that Intel is relatively easily running Celeron at.) That could mean that Q499 is a nearly 100% Athlon quarter, with ~3M Athlons produced.

>>AThlon without L2 cache will be their low cost chip

Without cache the Athlon would have pretty lousy performance, no? After all, it has a small onboard cache if I am correct. You're right, it will have spectacular MHz, so maybe that will be enough. But the die size will still be the huge ~180 sq mm. This would imply pretty low DPW and a resulting high die cost. 0.18 will shrink the die size considerably, but it will still be large relative to other microprocessors on 0.18.

>>giving Intel fits

They'll give Intel fits no matter what.

All your points are valid; it's just that AMD's capacity is so huge they have to have an incredible ramp in order to support the fixed costs. It seems clear to me that ramp will come at the expense of ASPs. If AMD is able to figure out something else to make in the fabs (SRAMs, maybe?), this would take the pressure off to fill the fabs with microprocessors.

Given all this, though, I have no prediction on what will happen to the stock price.

Regards,

Gerald Freeman
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