Somewhat OT********
Herm,
In the same way Edify is the right way to buy SONE (or ZD to ZDNet), Loral might be the right way to play GSTRF. It has a substantial interest in GSTRF that is not reflected in its stock price when compared to GSTRF's current valuation. It's other businesses mitigate much of the risk inherent in a pure play in uncharted territory (mobile satellite services for the masses).
To me, there is little doubt that GSTRF is the best positioned player in MSS. However,there are other players, and it appears that the market is smaller than originally thought. It is tough to make huge long term technological investments in an age of rapid technological advance. MSS has suffered from the inroads of terrestrial wireless while trying to get going. There are still niches and geographical areas where it makes sense, but are there enough to justify the huge investments involved? Careful DD required here.
I might pay a higher price for waiting, but wait I will. Iridium has failed to find a market. If GSTRF -- which will have an operational constellation in a few months -- can produce evidence they might cover their costs, say, by yearend, then perhaps I'll invest.
Mind you, this is spoken by someone with a strong stomach for currently unprofitable vipers ;~} Even I get queasy looking at GSTRF after a huge run; it looks overbought to me. This is why I like the Loral angle, and will explore it further.
Despite the big run, GSTRF's premies are so-so. LOR's are similar.
How about a company that's quietly making money and has better premies? Such as SRCL? This would be my next buy if the funds were in my hands right now.
Cheers, Tuck
PS Seeing as we're getting OT here, perhaps we should switch to PMs on this subject, unless we mention writing calls. |
